STL (6-5) @ WSH (4-7) -- Game 3 of 3
McGreevy (RHP, 0-1, 2.53 ERA) vs Mikolas (RHP, 0-2, 14.46 ERA)
Nationals Park -- 3:05 PM CT / 4:05 PM ET
BOTTOM LINE
Edge: Mikolas has been a disaster in 2026 -- 14.46 ERA, 2.25 WHIP, 5 HR in 9.1 IP. The former Cardinal faces his old team for the first time. His TTO2 splits (.291 AVG, .838 OPS) make the middle innings the primary attack window. Cardinals are 5-1 vs Washington in 2025.
Threat: McGreevy's .318/.368/.543 line vs LHB (.861 OPS) is a clear vulnerability. Washington's three best hitters -- Wood, Abrams, Lile -- all bat left-handed. That is a dangerous concentration of lefty damage.
Watch: Opposite home/away splits define this matchup. McGreevy is better on the road (3.55 ERA away vs 5.22 home). Mikolas was elite at home in 2025 (3.20 ERA vs 5.91 away). Whether his new home at Nationals Park provides the same comfort is the open question.
YESTERDAY'S REPORT CARD--STL 7, WSH 6 (10)
Cardinals rallied from a 5-4 deficit. Church's 2-run HR in the 8th tied it. Saggese and Wetherholt delivered RBI doubles in the 10th. Soriano: 2 scoreless IP, 3 K.
| Prediction | Grade |
| Cardinals LHB .250+ AVG vs Cavalli | Correct |
| Nationals 2+ runs in innings 4-6 (TTO2) | Correct |
| Wood XBH vs Liberatore | Correct |
| Cardinals score more in innings 1-3 vs Cavalli | Correct |
| Better bullpen performance wins | Correct |
Score: 5/5 (100%)
KEY MATCHUPS AND WATCHLIST
1. Wood/Abrams/Lile vs McGreevy's LHB Splits. McGreevy's .318 AVG allowed to LHB is the game's defining matchup. Wood (.244/.359/.464 vs RHP), Abrams (.269/.332/.477), and Lile (.312/.359/.532) are Washington's three best hitters -- all left-handed. Wood's 29.1% line drive rate against McGreevy's ground ball approach creates the most volatile at-bats. McGreevy needs to keep Wood on the ground and avoid leaving pitches up.
2. Cardinals Middle Innings vs Mikolas TTO2. Mikolas's TTO2 is a .838 OPS disaster zone -- .291 AVG with 14 HR in 277 PA. His 14.46 ERA in 2026 suggests the problem has gotten worse. The 4th-6th innings are where St. Louis should manufacture its biggest rallies. Burleson (.296 vs RHP, 14.5% K rate) is the steadiest bat to anchor the attack.
3. X-Factor: Mikolas's Home Split vs 2026 Reality. Mikolas posted a 3.20 ERA at home in 2025 vs 5.91 on the road -- a massive gap. But his 2025 home was Busch Stadium. Whether Nationals Park provides the same comfort is the open question. He has career numbers at Nationals Park (5-2, 2.79 ERA), but the stadium-as-home dynamic is entirely new. If the Cardinals treat this like a road-Mikolas start, they should score.
SECTION 1: 2026 SEASON CONTEXT
NL Central
| Team | W-L | GB | Strk |
| Reds | 8-3 | - | W5 |
| Brewers | 8-3 | - | L1 |
| Pirates | 7-4 | 1.0 | W1 |
| Cardinals | 6-5 | 2.0 | W1 |
| Cubs | 5-6 | 3.0 | W1 |
NL East
| Team | W-L | GB | Strk |
| Mets | 7-4 | - | W4 |
| Braves | 7-5 | 0.5 | W1 |
| Phillies | 6-5 | 1.0 | L1 |
| Marlins | 6-5 | 1.0 | L2 |
| Nationals | 4-7 | 3.0 | L1 |
Starting Pitchers
Michael McGreevy (STL, RHP) -- 0-1, 2.53 ERA, 10.2 IP, 9 K, 2 BB, 0.84 WHIP in 2 GS.
Miles Mikolas (WSH, RHP) -- 0-2, 14.46 ERA, 9.1 IP, 8 K, 4 BB, 2.25 WHIP in 2 GS.
STL: Nootbaar (60-day IL, heel). Dobbins (torn ACL). Pushard (15-day IL, knee). Winn returned.
WSH: Gray (60-day IL, flexor). Herz (60-day IL, UCL). Williams (60-day IL, elbow). Schultz recalled.
SECTION 2: HISTORICAL DEPTH
2025 data via Retrosheet/Lahman. Career BvP from all seasons.
2a: Cardinals vs Mikolas (Career BvP)
| Player | PA | AB | H | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
| Urias R | 2 | 2 | 1 | .500 | .500 | .500 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Burleson, Herrera, Wetherholt, Walker, Fermin, Winn, Church, Gorman, Pages, Urias, Saggese, Scott, Pozo -- No data | |||||||||
Mikolas was a Cardinal through 2025. Urias: 2 PA (small sample).
2b: Nationals vs McGreevy (Career BvP)
No BvP data. No bench history.
2c: Cardinals vs RHP (2025)
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
| Burleson L | 419 | .296 | .353 | .478 | 15 | 32 | 59 |
| Winn R | 374 | .251 | .309 | .368 | 7 | 23 | 71 |
| Scott L | 332 | .221 | .310 | .317 | 5 | 31 | 75 |
| Herrera R | 328 | .268 | .343 | .399 | 10 | 24 | 66 |
| Gorman L | 309 | .201 | .294 | .349 | 9 | 37 | 111 |
| Walker R | 289 | .200 | .263 | .291 | 4 | 21 | 94 |
| Pages R | 276 | .225 | .264 | .364 | 9 | 12 | 72 |
| Urias R | 273 | .233 | .278 | .367 | 7 | 17 | 57 |
| Saggese R | 227 | .254 | .305 | .340 | 1 | 15 | 63 |
| Pozo R | 126 | .217 | .254 | .358 | 4 | 6 | 16 |
| Fermin R | 59 | .280 | .379 | .420 | 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Church L | 51 | .114 | .216 | .182 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
2c: Nationals vs RHP (2025)
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
| Wood L | 463 | .244 | .359 | .464 | 19 | 68 | 150 |
| Abrams L | 435 | .269 | .332 | .477 | 15 | 29 | 72 |
| Lile L | 274 | .312 | .359 | .532 | 7 | 18 | 39 |
| Young R | 261 | .234 | .287 | .294 | 2 | 16 | 46 |
| Ruiz S | 213 | .235 | .263 | .299 | 1 | 6 | 22 |
| House R | 192 | .242 | .260 | .346 | 4 | 6 | 52 |
| Mead R | 138 | .258 | .312 | .367 | 2 | 6 | 40 |
| Nunez S | 57 | .212 | .250 | .346 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| Wiemer R | 27 | .259 | .259 | .370 | 1 | 0 | 11 |
2d: Pitcher Platoon (2025)
| Pitcher | vs | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | K |
| McGreevy | LHB | 190 | .318 | .368 | .543 | .861 | 9 | 27 |
| McGreevy | RHB | 210 | .225 | .255 | .325 | .550 | 3 | 31 |
| Mikolas | LHB | 364 | .270 | .316 | .496 | .766 | 17 | 53 |
| Mikolas | RHB | 305 | .274 | .310 | .488 | .762 | 12 | 47 |
2d-HA: Home/Away (2025)
| Pitcher | Split | BF | IP | ERA | K | BB | HR |
| McGreevy | Away | 188 | 45.9 | 3.55 | 24 | 9 | 6 |
| McGreevy | Home | 212 | 50 | 5.22 | 34 | 11 | 6 |
| Mikolas | Away | 334 | 74.9 | 5.91 | 52 | 16 | 22 |
| Mikolas | Home | 335 | 81.9 | 3.20 | 48 | 21 | 7 |
2e: Times Through Order (2025)
| Pitcher | TTO | PA | AVG | SLG | OPS | HR | K | BB |
| McGreevy | TTO1 | 154 | .282 | .465 | .747 | 5 | 22 | 8 |
| McGreevy | TTO2 | 152 | .271 | .417 | .688 | 4 | 14 | 6 |
| McGreevy | TTO3 | 94 | .241 | .379 | .620 | 3 | 22 | 6 |
| Mikolas | TTO1 | 279 | .254 | .488 | .742 | 14 | 46 | 16 |
| Mikolas | TTO2 | 277 | .291 | .547 | .838 | 14 | 45 | 15 |
| Mikolas | TTO3 | 113 | .269 | .365 | .634 | 1 | 9 | 6 |
2f: Inherited Runners (2025)
| Reliever | IR | Scored | Strand% |
| Leahy | 29 | 11 | 62.1% |
| Romero | 26 | 3 | 88.5% |
| Svanson | 26 | 13 | 50.0% |
| Graceffo | 11 | 5 | 54.5% |
| O'Brien | 10 | 3 | 70.0% |
| McGreevy | 3 | 0 | 100.0% |
2g: Pitcher Batted Ball (2025)
| Pitcher | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
| McGreevy | 307 | 49.2% | 25.7% | 24.4% |
| Mikolas | 500 | 42.4% | 33.6% | 23.2% |
2h: Battery (McGreevy)
| Catcher | G | IP | ERA | AVG |
| Pedro Pages | 14 | 80.7 | 4.24 | .266 |
| Jimmy Crooks | 2 | 8.7 | 9.35 | .385 |
| Yohel Pozo | 1 | 5.7 | 0.00 | .056 |
2i: Baserunning (WSH, 2025)
Abrams: 31 SB, 3 CS (91.2%). Wood: 15 SB, 7 CS (68.2%). Young: 15 SB, 11 CS (57.7%). Nunez: 9 SB, 1 CS (90%). Lile: 8 SB, 6 CS (57.1%). Mead: 5 SB, 1 CS (83.3%). House: 5 SB, 3 CS (62.5%).
2k: Ballpark
Cardinals 17-9 vs WSH 2022-2025 (5-1 in 2025). Nats Park: 96. Early 2026: 116 (small sample).
2l: Batter K%/BB% (2025)
Cardinals
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% |
| Burleson | 544 | 79 | 14.5% | 39 | 7.2% |
| Winn | 537 | 102 | 19% | 34 | 6.3% |
| Scott | 463 | 111 | 24% | 42 | 9.1% |
| Herrera | 450 | 84 | 18.7% | 43 | 9.6% |
| Gorman | 402 | 136 | 33.8% | 47 | 11.7% |
| Walker | 396 | 126 | 31.8% | 29 | 7.3% |
| Urias | 391 | 88 | 22.5% | 27 | 6.9% |
| Pages | 389 | 107 | 27.5% | 19 | 4.9% |
| Saggese | 295 | 83 | 28.1% | 16 | 5.4% |
| Pozo | 168 | 22 | 13.1% | 7 | 4.2% |
| Fermin | 70 | 10 | 14.3% | 8 | 11.4% |
| Church | 65 | 18 | 27.7% | 3 | 4.6% |
Nationals
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% |
| Wood | 689 | 221 | 32.1% | 85 | 12.3% |
| Abrams | 635 | 125 | 19.7% | 37 | 5.8% |
| Young | 364 | 65 | 17.9% | 27 | 7.4% |
| Lile | 350 | 56 | 16% | 21 | 6% |
| House | 274 | 78 | 28.5% | 8 | 2.9% |
| Ruiz | 267 | 26 | 9.7% | 8 | 3% |
| Mead | 264 | 63 | 23.9% | 15 | 5.7% |
| Nunez | 92 | 20 | 21.7% | 8 | 8.7% |
| Wiemer | 61 | 23 | 37.7% | 2 | 3.3% |
2m: Batter Batted Ball (2025)
Cardinals
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
| Burleson | 398 | 42% | 33.4% | 24.6% |
| Winn | 376 | 39.6% | 34% | 26.3% |
| Herrera | 285 | 52.6% | 21.8% | 25.6% |
| Scott | 259 | 40.2% | 32% | 27.8% |
| Urias | 253 | 45.1% | 29.2% | 25.7% |
| Pages | 243 | 44.9% | 30.9% | 24.3% |
| Walker | 231 | 48.9% | 29.4% | 21.6% |
| Gorman | 199 | 30.2% | 41.7% | 28.1% |
| Saggese | 189 | 41.8% | 29.6% | 28.6% |
| Pozo | 133 | 40.6% | 33.1% | 26.3% |
| Fermin | 46 | 37% | 32.6% | 30.4% |
| Church | 37 | 67.6% | 21.6% | 10.8% |
Nationals
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
| Abrams | 436 | 42% | 33.7% | 24.3% |
| Wood | 347 | 54.8% | 16.1% | 29.1% |
| Lile | 257 | 37.7% | 28.4% | 33.9% |
| Young | 246 | 54.1% | 19.5% | 26.4% |
| Ruiz | 227 | 49.3% | 26.9% | 23.8% |
| House | 179 | 48.6% | 22.9% | 28.5% |
| Mead | 174 | 38.5% | 37.4% | 24.1% |
| Nunez | 56 | 55.4% | 19.6% | 25% |
| Wiemer | 29 | 55.2% | 17.2% | 27.6% |
2n: Pitcher K%/BB% (2025)
| Pitcher | IP | K | K% | BB | BB% | K/BB |
| Mikolas | 156.3 | 100 | 14.9% | 37 | 5.5% | 2.7 |
| McGreevy | 95.7 | 58 | 14.5% | 20 | 5% | 2.9 |
QUICK REFERENCE
1. "Mikolas vs Cardinals historically?"
2. "McGreevy platoon splits vs LHB?"
3. "CJ Abrams SB numbers"
4. "Cardinals bullpen IR strand rates"
5. "Cardinals vs Nationals recent seasons?"
6. "McGreevy TTO splits"
7. "Nats Park HR park factor"
700 CLARK -- POWERED BY BASES.CHAT | HISTORICAL DATA THROUGH 2025